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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It frequently acts as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the biggest resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

But the latest competition is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions fading and longtime underperformers rising collectively. In an typical year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's competing with five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. But he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still